Truck values hold strong as demand for used trucks exceeds supply
As the 2007 trucked accumulated too many miles or disappeared from the market attentions turned to 2011 model years.
“Those have really come on the last two quarters,” Visser says. “They are entering their sweet spot as fleets who keep their trucks for about three years start to cycle them into the secondary market. That’s a nice truck in terms of mileage.”
Model year 2008 trucks were never a factor in the marker, Visser says, due to low build rates and they were the first of the DPF trucks, which scared many buyers away.
Pricing for all trucks has been stable through 2013. Retail and wholesale deprecation through all of 2013 was about 1 percent, compared to 12 percent for retail in 2012. In general 600,000 miles is generally the range where used truck pricing starts to drop off dramatically in the retail market, Visser says noting only about 30 percent of trucks in the retail market have 600,000 miles or more, while they make up about 60 percent of wholesale.
“We’re in a period now where demand is still outstripping supply for trucks with under 600,000 miles,” he says, adding 2011 trucks will see an initial depreciation because they enter the market with the lowest mileage and retail buyers will pay what Visser termed “an extreme premium” for those trucks.
The wholesale market is stable, with little depreciation.
Visser says dealers can expect more 2012 trucks to work their way into the market through the year, but he doesn’t expect any decrease in pricing.
“There’s just not going to be a big glut of those trucks out there.”